The Mediterranean is stuck in a cycle of crises, notably in Libya
and the fight over offshore gas, which is now being dangerously
exacerbated by Türkiye's geopolitical maneuvers, increasing the risk of a
regional explosion with Greece
Poxy Libyan Proxies
Türkiye’s savvy Libyan engagement—anchored by a maritime deal that
disregarded claims of even major Greek islands like Rhodes and
Crete—allowed Ankara to establish diplomatic, legal and militarily
inroads across the region. Greece could only fallback upon European
Union solidarity, while tensions nearly escalated into war as French and
Turkish naval forces squared off in 2020. But falling global gas prices, high extraction risks and unviable infrastructure costs defused the crisis.
Still, it was Libya who bore the brunt, as heightened geopolitical
stakes deepened stakeholder divisions and incentivised maintaining
Libya’s political crisis rather than resolving it. European hostility to
the Türkiye-Libya maritime deal shaped its Libya policy, refocusing
efforts to enforce the UN arms embargo onto Turkish assets and generating support for the authoritarian Khalifa Haftar as a foil, despite his record of atrocities.
The result was weakening Libya’s already fragile sovereignty. Instead
of addressing the root crisis of political legitimacy, foreign
actors—including Türkiye and Europe—manipulated Libya’s divisions for
strategic gain. As regional rivalries cooled, Türkiye then leveraged
these gains into a broader rapprochement with the UAE, Egypt and France,
translating them into lucrative business and security deals on both
sides of Libya’s divide.
The effect has been to entrench two de-facto dictatorships with no
local constituencies, both backed by the same foreign powers. Türkiye
expanded its reach with new energy deals and military privileges, while it and other countries helped Libyan factions fragment the national oil sector and divert revenues through new intermediaries. The creation of the Arkenu oil company symbolizes Libya’s erasure from its own resource wealth—an emblem of external domination masquerading as partnership.
The Best Laid Plans
Türkiye has skillfully built a platform of political influence in
Libya—leveraging its ties with elites, forging new partnerships with
EMGF members, and expanding energy cooperation with U.S. and European
companies—ensuring any windfall flowed in their direction. But despite
these realignments, Libya’s fragility and the enduring antagonism
between Greece and Türkiye steer the region toward perpetual crisis.
A few dynamics are driving this trend. Foremost among them is the sheer scale of Libya’s offshore gas reserves, estimated at 122 trillion cubic feet.
This potential goldmine has attracted an insecure Libyan prime minister
eager to trade access for international backing, a Europe desperate for
post-Ukraine energy alternatives, and a new U.S. administration
motivated by raw commercialism.
Libya’s elites have all courted Washington in various ways, but
energy remains the key currency. During a recent visit, Trump
advisor Massaad Boulos brokered deals for Hill International and Exxon Mobil to survey and develop offshore gas fields.
This bought America into ready-made coalitions: Türkiye’s state-owned oil firm had already partnered with
Libya’s national oil company (NOC), and the Hill International deal
linked the U.S. company to an existing consortium between Libya’s NOC
and Italian energy giant ENI. In order to stimulate closer cooperation,
Turkish President Recep Erdogan recently hosted a special conference with his Italian and Libyan counterparts.
With momentum building, Ankara is launching a new charm offensive towards Haftar and eastern Libya, using the familiar model of leveraging military support to coax mutually beneficial contracts as the foundations for a political relationship. The prize is
getting Libya’s speaker of parliament—a man who unilaterally speaks for
the otherwise inert body in eastern Libya that cannot meet quorum or
cross Haftar—ratifying its maritime agreement. This would strengthen
Türkiye’s claims over Mediterranean energy zones and open the door for
privileged access.
But these mounting foreign interests in Libya are causing the country
to buckle. Haftar, empowered by international attention, is amassing
weapons and reviving ambitions to conquer Tripoli. In turn, Prime
Minister Dbeiba, eager to preempt Haftar, has pushed Libya’s first energy concessions in decades to endear himself to the international community and launched a war in the capital to centralise power.
An Eruption on the Horizon?
With Libyans becoming increasingly impoverished and frustrated, and
the political stakes rising and growing more lucrative, pressure is
building toward a violent explosion. International dynamics are not
helping, either. Greece, feeling provoked by Türkiye, as well as
Haftar’s political promiscuity, is now feuding with its erstwhile Libyan
partner. Haftar responded over the summer by exporting migrants to
Crete, ostensibly to pressure Athens’ right-wing government. Instead,
Greece seized one of Haftar’s arms shipments, reminding him of their
importance to his operations, deployed their navy, and then launched a
charm offensive to win Haftar back.
While Türkiye may believe its energy alliances with the U.S., Italy,
and others buffer it from unified European opposition, it may simply be
fueling new rifts. Haftar’s weaponisation of migration taps into
Europe’s deepest anxieties. Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil has recently discovered new gas fields off Cyprus, which is working with Egypt to expand exports—rekindling the Eastern Mediterranean dispute.
Greece’s navy is already deployed, another EU member-state, Cyprus,
is reactivating its energy interests, and other regional players like
the UAE, Egypt and Israel may be tempted to inflame tensions further to
gain leverage over both Türkiye and Europe.
The rational path forward would be diplomacy: a multilateral forum to
equitably manage Mediterranean resources and a UN process that
prioritises Libyan sovereignty over foreign proxy politics. Even a
realpolitik view would see such steps as the key to stability and
long-term economic gain. Yet solutions remain unconsidered. Instead,
overlapping rivalries, short-termism and conflicting maximalist
ambitions across the region are stoking the volcano that is Libya and
the eastern Mediterranean toward another predictable, yet preventable,
eruption.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author
and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Middle East Council on
Global Affairs.
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